This is definitely the very last post for 2020.
First the outlook, then the post mortem.
For 2021 prices of heavy rare earth oxides are seen firm to increasing, according to Chinese analysts.
On light rare earth oxides the outlook is also strong, however, a tad less bullish than heavy rare earth, according to Chinese sources.
Our take: If they talk about heavy rare earth Dy, Tb, Gd and Ho, we cautiously agree and in terms of light rare earth Nd and Pr, too.
There is a forecast for stronger La prices by Argus.
Reason for caution:
We still have not seen the contents of the next 5-year plan for the China rare earth industry
The price increases are very recent and the impact has yet to play out.
We have not seen the China rare earth export numbers for December yet.
China’s industrial policy generally does not favour high prices for raw materials.
Don’t forget the impact of the US$/RMB onshore exchange rate. The US$ has been weakish in recent months, which amplifies China RE price increases.
At least a handful of junior miners should be able to demonstrate feasibility at current prices. Where are all the miners who were moaning about low prices?
With the last working day of the year over, here are the final prices for the year:
YTD: First working day of 2020 to last working day of 2020. YOY: Last working day of 2019 to last working day 2020. Hence slight variations, see exchange rate.
Price changes over the last 2 months:
And here the graphs: