Rare Earth Dual-Use Drama; Myanmar RE Saga continues; SEA's RE: China is like a Dry Tree seeking Water; RE-Corruption; Pensana's "clean" Deal with Toyotsu; Bloodbath in China's EV market; and the lot.
Rare Earths 05 July 2025 #178
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Oh joy, let's marvel at the sheer brilliance of newbie rare earth experts flooding social media with their profound insights!
Who needs actual expertise or decades of experience when you can just wing it and sound smart online? It's not like these geniuses have been hiding under a rock, accumulating knowledge and waiting for the perfect moment to share their groundbreaking thoughts with the world.
And let's not forget the AI-generated rare earth content feeding on our algorithmic bias that is sprinkling fairy dust and fantasy facts about rare earth elements everywhere. Because what's more reliable than AI spitting out information it's learned from the vast, totally-not-often-utterly-wrong internet?
Our highly respected fellow rare-earthlings at Hallgarten & Co. were so thrilled by this deluge of expert opinion that they decided to write a "Rare Earth for Dummies" guide. Because, clearly, what the internet really needs is a primer from actual experts to counteract all the... let's call it "creative" analysis out there.
Social media are perilous. Perfectly rational individuals abandon critical thinking abilities when they become part of a larger group. When you feel absolutely certain about something, ask yourself what could change your mind. If you can’t think of any, that is a red flag.
Bloodbath in China EV
Unable to export itself out of crisis, the Chinese EV market is facing a crunch that can only be resolved by consolidation. We publish in the EV section below the full letter of the automotive dealer associations and discuss the likely impact on rare earth permanent magnets as well as rare earths in the Prices section.
While the Chinese government’s main concern with the whole thing is social stability, its memory retention of merry-old state-planning days with its terrible shortages and black markets is quite good. We would not bet on large-scale government intervention.
Bloomberg
Lutnick Says US-China Trade Truce Signed, 10 Deals Imminent
“They’re going to deliver rare earths to us” and once they do that, “we’ll take down our countermeasures,” Lutnick told Bloomberg News in an interview.
Magnets perhaps, but the 7 dual-use licensable rare earths? Good luck with that, Secretary Lutnick.
The U.S. lifted export restrictions on semiconductor design software and ethane to China. But where is the flood of magnets and rare earths, Secretary Lutnick?
China only confirmed that it will speed up the dual-use license application process for rare earth permanent magnets. An easy promise to make, because you can’t fall off the floor.
Mining.com also get impatient.
Almost 10 days since President Donald Trump declared a “done” trade deal with Beijing, US companies remain largely in the dark on when they’ll receive crucial magnets from China — and whether Washington, in turn, will allow a host of other exports to resume.
While there has been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing’s approval for shipments, according to people familiar with the process. China’s system is improving but remains cumbersome, they said, contrary to Trump’s assurances rare earths would flow “up front” after a June 11 accord struck in London.
Strictly as per the law
In its defense MOFCOM’s bureaucrates state, that they proceed strictly according to the law.
Fair enough, but somehow we missed the section in the law where it says to screw things up.
Scale of the mess
In our view the immediate, direct share of applications of rare earth permanent magnets in global GDP is 3% (2024), ripple effect not measured.
Meanwhile the U.S.leverage in advanced semi-conductors may be melting away
In light of US sanctions, China unveils first parallel optical computing chip, ‘Meteor-1’
The chip achieves a theoretical peak computing power of 2,560 TOPS (tera-operations per second) at 50GHz optical frequency – performance comparable to Nvidia’s advanced GPUs – according to a report by Chinese publisher DeepTech last week.
One of the great deals of the current U.S. administration
NI: Russia controls key Ukrainian resources that the US has its eye on
In May 2025, Washington and Kiev signed an agreement on cooperation in the development of natural resources. According to a statement by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, all resources on Ukrainian territory were to remain under Kyiv's control. However, the real situation on the ground has shown that a significant portion of key deposits are already located in the zone controlled by Russia.
Experts note that about 40% of Ukraine's metal reserves, including rare earth elements, are currently controlled by Russia. Most industrial mines are located in active combat zones. The shutdown of the country's only coking coal mine has further complicated Ukraine's access to its own resources.
This does not look promising for this great deal.
Will this be the next greatest deal ever?
India, Japan, USA and Australia see risks and opportunities in rare earths
The four nations comprise a loose bloc called “The Quad” that stages an annual meeting of foreign ministers. This years’ gabfest took place last weekend, and the resulting joint statement said the bloc is “deeply concerned about the abrupt constriction and future reliability of key supply chains, specifically for critical minerals.”
Which is why the Quad launched the “Quad Critical Minerals Initiative”. The four nations haven’t detailed what the Initiative will do, or when, but described the effort as “an ambitious expansion of our partnership to strengthen economic security and collective resilience by collaborating to secure and diversify critical minerals supply chain.”
Four drowning swimmers embracing each other?
Urgent: China reassures Europe on rare earth supply amid export controls
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday that rare earth exports have never been and should not become an issue between China and Europe.
Yes, Minister Wang, the EU has had this promise since 2014, thank you.
China’s rare earth exports drop
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