On Monday and Tuesday there will be the 1st Asian Rare Earth Conference by Metal Events in Singapore, where we will hear contributions from rare earth heavy weights Neo Performance Materials and Lynas, lined with insights from rare earth upstart consultant Benchmark.
Thursday and Friday will be the 15th Rare Earth Summit of Asian Metals in China’s version of Hawaii, Hainan Island.
Since China has declared rare earth a matter of core national interest and everything around rare earth a matter of national security, we would not be surprised if all presentations at the 15th Rare Earth Summit were replaced by joyful readings from China’s three top-selling books in the category “Nothing Else Matters”:
TOP 1: “The Governance China” Vol 3, by Xi Jing Ping. TOP 2: “The Governance of China,” Vol. 4, by Xi Jin Ping. TOP 3: “Strive Forward on the Road to Common Prosperity” by the DRC Think Tank under the State Council. Source: Withheld
On Sunday, state broadcaster CCTV published a series of claims by the Ministry of State Security about spying cases, including an individual identified only as Cheng, the deputy manager of an unnamed rare earth company, who was jailed for 11 and half years for “illegally providing state secrets” and bribery.
The report said Cheng, who was also fined 100,000 yuan (US$13,800) and had personal property worth 900,000 yuan confiscated, had supplied information about rare earths that the government was collecting to a contact working for the Shanghai subsidiary of an unnamed foreign non-ferrous metals company.
“In recent years, critical minerals have become a new area of strategic competition between major global powers. As one of the key mineral resources, rare earths not only contribute to high-quality economic development, but are also closely related to national security,” CCTV’s report said.
The Chinese government officially has gone over the top.
Please imagine: 11 years of a man’s life for some utterly profane, meaningless and boring fine chemicals. Get real: Everything to know about rare earth has been in the public domain for decades.
Will China implode, if rare earths are produced elsewhere? We are talking about a US$5-6 billion per year specialty chemical business that is about as relevant to China’s national security as strawberry yogurt with müsli would be.
The whole rare earth and defense thing is totally blown out of proportion. Any weapon, that will turn this planet into another Planet Mars, has already been built.
A trusted expert rare-earthling pointed us to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) rare earth trade statistics last week. These OECD statistics imply vibrant world trade of rare earth, while diminishing the role of China.
Among other gross errors the OECD statistics suggest, that there would be significant exports of rare earth metals from Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Austria.
Avid readers of this humble blog will realise instantly that this can’t be, as there is no rare earth metal production in any of these countries.
The OECD statistics also elevated Germany to an exporter of rare earth compounds…
Part of the erroneous statistics may be, that the OECD does not differentiate between rare earth ores and rare earth metals or anything in-between. Doing so is equivalent to confusing iron ore with steel.
Distinguishing between different articles is, what the customs statistics HS-codes are there for. Why the OECD apparently mixes up all of them when it comes to rare earth is incomprehensible.
One can’t blame the OECD or anybody else for lack of specific expertise. But the OECD, its policy research and its data, have an outsized impact on policy-making everywhere and therefore it must be made aware of its shortcomings.
Apart from leading to potential miscarriages of government policies, OECD statistics are also used by major mainstream media outlets, who then flood their unsuspecting readership with these misleading data:
As you can see, Bloomberg’s OECD statistic makes Australia a rare earth elements producer, which it isn’t, and treats intermediate products from Myanmar as finished, separated rare earths, creating fictitious market shares.
Unlike other industries, mining projects are notorious for their long development times. It is not uncommon for several decades to pass from the first exploration to the start of production, the so-called lead time. A study by S&P Global shows that on average this takes more than 16 years, with a time span of between 6 and 32 years.
And:
Of the average 16 years, the exploration phase accounts for the largest share of development time, just under 12 years. This is also the phase with the greatest risk for mining projects, as the results of the exploration work can lead to the project being abandoned at any time.
As regards rare earths
If you are a junior rare earth mining investor, you will want to take note that there are very, very few rare earth projects mature enough to go into production within coming years, all of whom face their own unique combination of commercial, technical and logistical challenges, apart from the often disproportionally large investment required in order to get going.
For raising exploration capital, junior miners often raise a cascade of expectations which they can’t possibly ever meet.
Mature projects deadlock
Almost all of the mature rare earth projects are lingering in the shadows of the screaming attention-seekers among those who are at the earliest exploration stage.
Poverty has pushed many Bauchi State residents to engage in illegal mining activities, defying the dangers and restrictions imposed by the state government on illegal mining.The locals work all day, extracting the mined sand locally called Monazite minerals. DAVID ADENUGA reports on how they are risking it all to survive economic hardship.
Undeterred by the relentless heat of the sun, the villagers till the land in search of this raw material. They work all day, extracting the mined sand locally called Monazite minerals.
Among the women at the site is Hassana Monday, a nursing mother who visited the site with her six-month-old baby. After breastfeeding the child, she carefully strapped him on her back before turning her attention to the task at hand—digging through the sand in search of Monazite.
“I make N4,000 [~US$3.71] daily from the mining site,” she told this reporter who visited the mining site.
Isa Zainab (14), the first child in a family of six, told this reporter that she shares part of the financial responsibilities of her parents with the Monazite business.
The young girl, who was busy searching for monazite at a nearby stream when our reporter approached her, said she normally gave her mother half of the money, which she uses in providing food for them at home.
Isa makes up to N8,000 [US$7.42] daily from the monazite business. The young girl, whose life ambition is to become a doctor, said her parents are not financially capable of helping her to further her education after she completed her primary education, hence the reason why she had to visit the mining sites close to her area.
The Nation findings revealed that illegal mining activities are not limited to Bauchi Local Government Area alone but are also occurring in five other local government areas of the state, namely Toro, Alkaleri, Ningi, and certain areas of Tafawa Balewa.
Residents collect the monazite and sell to local companies, who separate it from the sand. The price of monazite ranges from N4,000 [US$3.71] per kg to N3,300 [US$3.06], depending on dollar rate.
A nursing mother: We don’t need to remind avid readers, particularly those in Nigeria and DR Congo, that monazite contains radioactive thorium and uranium, typically 5-6% in a >50% monazite concentrate.
Nigeria shipped 12,000 t of monazite concentrate to China in 2023, worth US$71 mio. In terms of volume Nigeria is second only to Rio Tinto, Madagascar, however, in terms of TREO quantity Nigeria is number one.
Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 China’s monazite imports from Nigeria have even doubled, from DR Congo up 60%. These guys rake in millions. It is high time to give to those, who are the most vulnerable in their supply chain.
The deep geothermal that GA Drilling enables differentiates it from others in the renewable energy market because of its capacity to integrate into existing infrastructure and avoid reliance on rare earth metals, as you see with solar or wind. This durable and versatile energy solution is being looked at for large-scale applications because it can provide secure baseload power and, specific to deep geothermal, can be applied anywhere on Earth regardless of a rock’s geographic location or density.
Anything that reduces the forecast fantastic growth rates of rare earth consumption will continue being embraced.
The news has been confirmed by the company’s head in Thailand Noriaki Yamashita. While giving the green signal to the model, he says the electric Hilux model will enter production at the end of next year. The announcement came days after when Isuzu shared its plan to transform the D-Max pickup into an EV by 2025.
We expect the EV might hit the international market, including Europe with a similar architecture as the ICE model, featuring the same bold stance, and will offer ample cargo space at the back. However, some minor changes are expected from the final production model.
BYD’s Thai plant held its groundbreaking ceremony in March 2023. The facility is constructed on land acquired from WHA Industrial Development PLC in September 2022. Once complete, the Thai EV factory is expected to have an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles.
BYD is not just establishing its EV production facilities in Thailand. The company is also constructing car factories in Hungary and Brazil. Vehicle production has also started at BYD’s plant in Uzbekistan earlier this year.
During a recent investors conference, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu informed investors that the company expects deliveries to hit 3.6 million units this year, which is about 20% more compared to last year’s 3.02 million units. The BYD Chairman also noted that BYD expects to see vehicle exports more than doubling to 500,000 units this 2024.
Vietnamese electric vehicle maker Vinfast is competing with Chinese car companies to market its EVs in Southeast Asia, aiming to benefit from the Asean Free Trade Agreement (Afta).
The company plans to first export EVs to Thailand before deciding whether to invest in building an EV assembly plant here, said Vu Dang Yen Hang, chief executive of Vinfast Auto (Thailand).
Loans for electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to pace auto lending expansion this year as demand gently builds in the Thai market.
Krungsri Auto, a leading auto loan provider and a unit of Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), projects new EV sales to reach 100,000 units this year, up from 76,000 last year.
The company anticipates growth of EV-related loans, encompassing battery EVs, hybrid EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs, totalling 35.7 billion baht, up from 35 billion last year.
Krungsri wants to bolster its EV loan portfolio to represent 50% of its total outstanding auto loans in 2024, up slightly from 49% at the end of last year.
The marginal growth is attributed to subdued demand for EVs this year compared with 2023, said Congsin Congcar, head of Krungsri Auto Group, adding many interested EV buyers made purchases last year.
However, Mr Congsin said Krungsri remains optimistic about positive demand for EVs in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than before.
This sounds like there may be an EV-glut looming in South East Asia.
Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab is laying off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles (EVs).
"About every five years, we need to reorganize and streamline the company for the next phase of growth," CEO Elon Musk commented in a post on X. Two senior leaders, battery development chief Drew Baglino and vice president for public policy Rohan Patel, also announced their departures, drawing posts of thanks from Musk although some investors were concerned.
Musk last announced a round of job cuts in 2022, after telling executives he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy. Still, Tesla headcount has risen from around 100,000 in late 2021 to over 140,000 in late 2023, according to filings with U.S. regulators
The estimated delivery time for a Tesla Cybertruck has been pushed out from May 2024 to 2025 on Tesla’s website.
I was attacked today on Twitter after posting that there may be production problems or quality issues that need to be fixed. There have been more pictures of bricked Cybertrucks on Twitter than can be imagined.
There is no way of knowing what’s actually going on at the most secretive carmaker in the world. But, given the huge start-up costs of this vehicle, it’s hard to imagine Tesla pushing out sales to next year after having said just last week, that delivery could be had in 2024
